So youâve probably heard about yesterdayâs Academy Award nominations. Pretty interesting, if youâre into that kind of thing. And really, who isnât? More importantly, who isnât into Movielineâs Oscar Index, which went a respectable 30 for 35 in its inaugural attempt to narrow down this yearâs nods to a science? Letâs break it all down â" and see what it means for the Oscar home stretch:
[Click the graphs for larger images]
The Nominees:
1. [tie] The Social Network
1. [tie] The Kingâs Speech
3. True Grit
4. The Fighter
5. Inception
6. Black Swan
7. The Kids Are All Right
8. Toy Story 3
9. 127 Hours
10. Winterâs Bone
Notes: Before we get too far into this, letâs first give a round of applause to Harvey Weinstein: The Oscar Whispererâs extraordinary awards-hoarding talents were on full display as The Kingâs Speech shocked Hollywood with a Producers Guild win for Best Picture â" then followed that up with a season-best 12 Academy Award nominations. On the one hand, it wasnât so hard to see the dozen nods coming down the pipe (itâs not like Social Network was going to get costume and art-direction nods, after all). On the other, from that PGA loss to Oscar oversights like Best Supporting Actor, senior Academy voters appeared to be putting TSN in its place after an unprecedented run through previous critics and guild awards announcements. âItâs a revolt, is what it is,â wrote Jeffrey Wells at Hollywood Elsewhere. âItâs the old getting onto the young and saying âno⦠no! Our most highly honored film canât be about kids talking about computer codesâ¦. no!â Meanwhile, Dave Karger played his longstanding Kingâs Speech allegiance cool, noting only, âWhatever ends up happening, itâs clear that despite The Social Networkâs critic-award sweep, we actually have a close contest for the Oscar.â
Screw âclose,â though. Iâd say in pundit perception terms alone this week â" and with Harvey creatively courting the Academyâs biggest voting bloc while quickly developing new box-office-boosting strategies â" this race is dead even.
And then thereâs True Grit, the ultimate wild card in all of this. With 10 nominations of its own â" including an equally shocking supplanting of Christopher Nolan in the Director category â" it has plenty of true believers around the Academy. It has two distinct disadvantages, however: The preferential Best Picture balloting system doesnât quite allow for the kind of vote-splitting we all assume resulted in Crashâs plurality-based victory in 2006; and the Coens, who edit their own films under the nom de splice Roderick Jaynes, were snubbed in the Editing category. And, as Paul Sheehan points out at Gold Derby, âEver since the Oscars introduced an award for editing in 1934, only nine movies have won Best Picture without at least being nominated for the editing Academy Award.â Depending on whom you ask (cough, Scott Rudin, cough), this latter detail may seem like more of a historical fluke than campaign hurdle. Nevertheless itâs a problem â" and one Paramount must address to sustain its own momentum this week.
As far as the rest, what can I say? Winterâs Bone is blowing my mind right now with four nominations in big-time categories (Picture, Actress, Supporting Actor and Adapted Screenplay), but thatâll pass â" though am I the only one who can foresee Debra Granik and Anne Rosellini pulling some Geoffrey Fletcher-over-Jason Reitman type of upset over Aaron Sorkin? Itâs not like they have to beat him and Kingâs Speech screenwriter David Seidler. Think about it. Oh: And sorry, Ben Affleck. The Town was good. It was very good. Alas.
The Nominees:
1. David Fincher, The Social Network
2. Tom Hooper, The Kingâs Speech
3. Joel and Ethan Coen, True Grit
4. David O. Russell, The Fighter
5. Darren Aronofsky, Black Swan
Notes:
You know how when youâre working in Photoshop and you have to get rid of a layer, the program issues an approval prompt, e.g. âDelete the layer âChris Nolanâ?â Exactly. Thatâs when the Inception filmmakerâs stunning ouster from the Best Director race really hit me! Screenplay nomination aside, this guy has some enemies in the Academy. Or maybe itâs just another one of those aforementioned fogey revolts that chose to emphasize the guys who made affecting, straightforward tales like The Kingâs Speech, The Fighter and (particularly) True Grit over the smartypants who befuddled half of America with Inception. Itâs anyoneâs guess. (Thought the latter scenario doesnât really explain Aronofskyâs nomination.) But what isnât anyoneâs guess is that Hooper â" who apparently survived having âliterally jumped out of my skinâ after Saturday nightâs upset â" is riding his filmâs PGA/Oscar nom wave all the way to a direct showdown with Fincher on Feb. 27.